When is it ok to change one’s mind?  For some things this is an simpler question.  For things like relationships, jobs, even most purchases, changing your mind about them is tangible.  It involves something physical, quantitative, or simple yes/no questions.  You either currently like the person your with or you don’t with relationships.  You either find your job fulfilling or you don’t.  That TV you bought either works with your living-room or you take it back.  Changing your mind on things have been in the forefront of my brain of late.  Specifically the next iPhone.

It’s difficult to decided when to change your mind on something as intangible as a rumor.  Conjecture.  Speculation.  The tech industry has been talking about what the next iPhone will be for some time now.  I even wrote an article back in June giving my take on what I believed was going to happen. I had been asked so many times, just made sense to write it all down.  Then I could just point people to the article if they wanted the reasons, and more in-depth speculation on what everything would have.

But that was back in June, and a lot has happened in the Apple tech sphere.  Part have been leaked.  Supposedly pictures taken.  Supply chains and manufacturers mentioning possible specs.  Biggest of all is that Steve retired and that means this next iPhone release will be Tim Cook’s first product launch with him fully in charge.  “He has to have a big release to show he’s as capable as Jobs, right?” one friend asks me.  No, I think that everything still lines up with what i said back then, I reply.  “But with everything that’s happened don’t you think they need to do something bigger?”

And then that’s where my question filters back into the forefront.  I wrote that article as a way to test myself.  Did I get how Apple thought, how they planned, and released products?  If I change my opinion now, after 3 months or so later, would it invalidate my test?  Would, changing my opinion at this point, make me “wishy-washy”? You’re not “wishy-washy” if you deiced after a year to get out of a relationship that is depressing you.  You’re not flip-flopping if you switch jobs after staying at one for years.  You’re not indecisive if you take back your TV for a different model (ok… maybe that last one…).  So what about opinion.  At what point does changing your opinion, show as a smart choice and not just changing and not sticking to your guns?

I supposed it depends on the information presented with you.  What the strength of the rumor is, as well as how it fits with your view of what the rumor is about.  How much time has passed since you made your original opinion? Do you keep changing it, or only after more facts come in do you change your mind?  Do you have reasons behind the change (or even original opinion) or are they just guess work? Of course even with most of the facts, any guesswork will require some intuition.  Intuition plays a large part as does how much you think you understand the situation.

I like to think myself pretty intuitive.  I meet people at work and instantly dislike them only to find out later that there is good reason for my disdain.  Or find myself instantly knowing people are basically good.  Rarely do I need to re-asset people after my first impressions. And this tends to flow towards products I use and companies I follow as well.  I tend to understand (although often not agree with) the methods and plans that many business make.  I understand why a feature isn’t included, even if everyone is clamoring for it.

So where does this lead me?  Do I change my opinion and go with what most people are saying about the new iPhone, or do I stick with my original guess that I formulated way back in April and penned in June?  If I change it at this point, do I invalidate my little test and just be as wishy-washy as the many of the tech pundants?  I’m going to stay with my intuition, since they’re really hasn’t been enough evidence to sway me, and all my originally reasons for my opinion still are valid.

But what if I did decided to change it?  Would it be “OK”?  There definitely is plenty of evidence and reasons out there, and chances are people wouldn’t fault me to change after this long with so much in the industry changing.   I don’t think that it would necessarily invalid the test, as  even large companies like Apple change their mind on things from time to time before a release.  Changing my prediction probably would color my ability with doubt as to my foresight into Apple’s thinking, but at this point not by much, being it’s been so long since my original prediction.

Perhaps opinion does have quantifiable data. Perhaps so long as you have your reasons and don’t make changes lightly it’s ok to change your opinion of things. Perhaps changing your mind only matters if you think your intuition matters in the big equation.  Perhaps…

Perhaps I’m way over-thinking things and it doesn’t matter.  Well, that is, until the new iPhone comes out and I’m proved right or wrong at least.